http://dinaresgurus.blogspot.ca/
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 10, 2015
MARTHA UPDATE : Things to watch for , 10 NOV
Things to watch for – from Martha,
Well, it seems we are truly off to the final lap to the bank this week.
#1 the banks are ready. China has help prevent their “crash ” so to speak. The Fed has opened the door, so to speak for the banks to clean up their act. Realize that certain banking engines have received “BONDS” to fund this major undertaking.
#2 watch the forex. The 3.41 rate will show and the CBI will show as well.
#3 Announcements – actually they are hot and heavy but again, but they won’t blurt out the GCR.
Watch for the Yuan announcement of being in the basket. The article I read which was dated 11/4 says SOMETIME this month and no later than 11/30-I would say a sure sign the basket is a go but may be announced after we get to bank
Of course, Iraq and the World are preparing in and out of country announcements. Look for “emerging market ” verbage.
Goldman Sachs may have dumped the BRICS fund because all these countries have devalued BUT they have moved funding into an EMERGING MARKETS fund(hint hint)
To quote a favorite “the eagle has landed ” and I would say right on our heads!!
This is our week.
HIGHLIGHTS FROM KTFA MONDAY NIGHT CC, 10 NOV
Notes by FrostyTheSnowman
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On Saturday night we had over 5,000 people gather for the special cc we did titled “The Eagle Has Landed.” Thank you for coming.
IMO – I already know what the “internet guru’s” are saying … but we made a decision to share that information with you.
The former Secretary of State of the US told a reporter on CNBC that the military was guarding Iraq’s currency.
We believe that this currency has now moved. We have verified this, and the lower denoms have left the USA. Was this info leaked out? The media is becoming a lot more friendly … because it sells newspapers.
I’ve got to be careful with what I say … but they have moved them.
Please come sit on my blue couch … (meaning in my dreams) … the lower denoms moved last Friday … and I believe they may have traveled to Germany. In my opinion … they may have used 2 birds … 2 different tarmac’s (for security).
While we were having our cc … intel came in … “the bird is in the air again.” �� IMO – the bird landed at its final destination. IMO the lower denoms are in Iraq now.
Do you remember when Abadi said … “we are 100% secure.” When you stop and think about that statement … that was a message, (mainly to the IMF, the USA and a bunch of “7’s”) that they are confident and secure to move forward.
I believe the AMENDMENTS to the LAWS (#1) have been done!
This paves the way for the remaining #2, #3 and #4.
If they amended the laws … that is done for a new international rate – otherwise, what was the purpose of changing the 1166 rate?
There is a NEED … there is a change coming!
IMO – the lower denoms are in Iraq … (this is #1 and #2) … only because it’s 100% secure.
On Sunday … and this morning … (come on over to the blue couch again) … Dr. S has these documents under his arms (100’s of them) … against Maliki.
Dr. Shabibi is getting ready to get rid of the so the so-called governor of the CBI (Allac).
Apparently the 100’s of documents will also implicate Allac along with Maliki. He was a part of the scheme that was played out on a global scale. Interesting things happen when the power-that-be question the wive(s) of corrupt individuals. The 2nd wife of Allac squealed like a pig when interrogated.
When Abadi tells you that everything is 100% secure … may I suggest that you believe him.
The lower denoms are in position (IMO) … in March … Iraq made fools of the IMF … so they told Iraq that they were going to get their 50’s and 100’s by the end of this year (2015).
The movement of the LD’s are 3 weeks ahead of schedule. The new 50’s and 100’s are the brother and sisters of the lower denoms in Iraq. This will allow the new rate to come forth – because mathematically IT WILL NOT WORK without them.
50’s and 100’s are lower denoms. It is highly possible (IMO) that these will be the seeds for the coalition forces. Pretty cool huh?!!! ��
What is a fraction of a fraction of a fraction (4 levels down) … 1166 on a 50 IQD note would be something like -478. LOL
USA HISTORY – we used to have higher denom bills too. But we physically lifted the 3 zeros … (they still have value today).
Today in the USA … our top circulated currency is the $100 USD … which today has HIGHER value. ��
In 2003 … all of the lower denoms have been sitting here waiting … because we (USA) are in charge.
They will have a 50 and a 100 … which won’t go any higher than that. ��
#1 – AMENDMENTS
#2 – LOWER DENOMS
Would you consider the LAWS … socks or shoes?
AMENDMENTS (LAWS) – (socks)
LOWER DENOMS – (shoes)
Which do you put on first?
For the longest time … these have waiting in the LONG LINE … w a i t i n g
The Ayatollah has told them to IMPLEMENT the dog-gone laws!
We have the banks … the permission (IMF) … and laws (international status) … and Iraq is ready to explode in value.
Are the amended laws in that LONG LINE? NO!
The LAWS are the life givers.
The lower denoms will be given a new rate because they are 100% secure.
So … so we move #3 and #4 into December?
I’ve made a decision with my Teams … no.
All reforms are going to break loose in Iraq … but we don’t know when they will be implemented.
To see the lower denoms travel … (and ordered by the IMF to be released by December 31, 2015) … and the holy men of Iraq are screaming for the laws to be implemented … this is amazing!
I know it’s hard sometimes … (especially if you’re new) … my Intel is yours as a gift – it is not something I shove down you … opinion.
When we told you Saturday night about these files … many wanted “proof” – where are the articles?
Well today we see in the news that Chalibibi revealed his files before his death – he turned those documents over to the Holy Man.
Apparently the files of the years of corruption (during Maliki’s rule) – the documents show the death of public money … trillion of dinars left Iraq … stolen by Maliki. Parliament is telling us it was a trillion.
The Governor of CBI … (Allac) … will be history.
What’s #3? – Dr. Shabibi announces himself as the official Governor of the CBI. That’s why he’s getting rid of Allac.
#4 – we’re going to talk about that tonight.
Remember when we told you of a meeting between us and the IMF?
Today we see an article … that a lot of changes are coming because of “REFORMS!” ��
I don’t want you to get overly excited. I’m not moving #3 and #4 into December … unless we see the LAWS next week … and if we do … we’ll move #3 and #4 into December.
May you unwrap future articles just as you will Christmas presents based on what I am telling you tonight.
Do you want Dr. Shabibi to come back? ��
#4 – Dr. Shabibi will announce a monetary reform that he is going to use.
Let’s clarify #4.
In the USA … we are allowed to express our opinion! Our intel is “well cooked” and my staff knows me very well. And when I express my opinion … things have been cooked for 3-4 days.
There was a gentleman that I gave a name too … (and I gave him a name – John) … this gentleman spoke to Dr. Shabibi in Washington, DC. He was invited to sit in the audience to hear Dr. Shabibi speak. Many (old timers) saw this on video.
This gentleman asked Dr. Shabibi … “when are you planning on increasing the value of your currency?” Dr. Shabibi after a very long pause (which seemed like a minute) … he deflected the question saying something about security. About a year ago John became friends with Dr. Shabibi on social media. He recently asked him the same question … and Dr. Shabibi’s answer was when then have security in Iraq.
We still don’t know WHEN these events will occur … but we see the development of the monetary reform occur before our eyes.
So … let’s talk about #4.
For those of you who dislike me … you have to give honor and credit to what we bring to you. Take all of what I say to you to God in prayer. Soon you will not have to listen to me. But for now … take me serious.
So, what monetary reform will Dr. Shabibi take?
IMO – if he doesn’t do something within the 1st quarter of 2016 … Iraq will be bankrupt.
They have no money … no liquidity … we haven’t given them any money for ½ a year. What good will the lower denoms do at 1166?
If they don’t do the monetary reform … then their currency could LOP. In other words, they removed the zeros in the wrong directions and they LOPPED them over the wrong way. That would be very dangerous.
Remember … all we’ve seen over the last 4th months (since July) is evidence that they will INCREASE the value. If they don’t increase the value in the 1st quarter of 2016 … the country will go bankrupt and the currency will LOP.
How much is one Iraqi Dinar? If you had 1 IQD in your right hand … tell me … what do you have (USD) in your left hand? It’s about 9/10 of a penny. That’s it.
What if Dr. Shabibi decided to take that up to 10 cents? So if you have 1 dinar in your right hand … and in your left hand (if Dr. Shabibi decided to give you 10 cents … what would every MILLION be worth to you? About $10,000.
What if Dr. Shabibi did 20 cents? That’s about $20,000 for every one MILLION IQD.
What if he did 30 cents? That’s about $30,000 for every one MILLION IQD.
What if he did it at 50 cents … that would be about $50,000 USD.
What if he took the exchange rate (.0008579 – or whatever it is right now) … and he took the 3 zeros off of that? In that case, if you had 1 dinar in your right hand … in your left hand Dr. Shabibi would give you .86 cents USD.
You mean if I had ONE MILLION IQD in my right hand … I’d have $860,000 USD in my left hand. Yes, that’s if he does that.
What happens if he decided to make it 1 to 1? Because if you think about it … right now the USD is stupid. It’s 99.26 today. How is that possible – with our economy?
Well, it’s certainly service a purpose … it’s trying to reach a 1 … because then the IQD at 1166 could remove 166 … and make their exchange rate 1.00 – then their currency would be one-to-one. ��
So in that case if you had ONE MILLION IQD in your right hand … you would have ONE MILLION USD in your left hand.
What if Dr. Shabibi doesn’t want to do 1 to 1? What if he wants to put it out in the market … to “free-floats” the currency? He could – and probably a very good idea. If he puts it out in the market that means our brokers and you and I could exchange it … and stocks could trade with it … that would create stability.
IMO … if they did that, it would not stay at one-to-one … it could climb to $2 … $3 … etc. There is a great hunger for people to use the IQD.
The CBI has told the world that they are in the process of lifting the value to their currency.
Are other currencies doing that? “Hey Bo-Bo (imitating Yogi the Bear)… that would be called a “picnic basket.” That is why Frank will only sell you certain currencies … that are in the same basket. ��
If it “free-floats” — and goes from 10 cents to 30 cents to $1 to $3 … they could control it … “controlled free float” … (the IMF and the CBI would control it).
If they let it go into the market “uncontrolled” that could be rather dangerous – which I don’t think Dr. S will do.
I don’t believe there are any other options.
The lower denoms can only function with a rate WITHOUT ZEROS!
If they keep the rate at 1166 – there is no reason to have the 50 and 100 … (demanded by the IMF by the end of the year) �� This is why Delta and I are both right … look at your notes. ��
Is it logical to put on your shoes … before your socks?
Yes – (IMO) the Eagle Has Landed in Iraq!
No – (IMO) I don’t see the Laws implemented in December.
The IMF is demanding that these things get done!
I am looking for the implementation of the LAWS … it’s only logical … isn’t that right IMF? ��
We need to see these laws … that is the next step in the monetary reform … because it is demanded of them.
Like I said Saturday night … we are in charge of this country … but they are in control of the monetary reform.
BTW — they are pricing goods … they are pricing good for crying out loud! ��
Teams say … the borders are ready to go too! ��
Real quick … let’s talk about the Iranian Rial … (IMO) – this is a currency from a currency that is under sanctions … but IMO will not take as much time because they have a government that is already established. The Rial belongs to a country that will have nuclear weapons. IMO – I think the Rial could do very well.
From my newspaper there is a section called “Behind the News” – it says that Iran’s long time mantra of “death to America” is losing its appeal. That’s right. Why? Because they need to make money with us, and they have nuclear weapons.
They are about to make a lot of stinkin’ money and they know it.
They are just like Iraq … caged under sanctions for 30 to 40 years … and at first they may be cautious … but once they understand their “freedoms” … it will run! ��
Iran is not a war-torn country … they already have a government.
Hope you enjoyed your cc.
CC ended in prayer.
IMO – Maliki is going to the gallows … and we won’t see the laws implemented until he does.
ENORRSTE UPDATE, 10 NOV
Article quote: “the Council of Ministers may ask the Central Bank “soon” to leave the currency auction and resorting to “float the dollar“
So now we have the finance committee in Parliament (at least Jabouri), the Council of Ministers, the IMF, and the CBI all on the same page. There is no more serious talk of not moving to the float.
Instead, the talk is essentially one over timing. Saleh is insistent, and correct, thatthe final decision with regard to timing is in the hands of the CBI. They are on records with several recent articles now stating that they wish to reduce the money supply in Iraq.
This can only be done with the raise in the value of the dinar. Those few who are pushing for the float so that the value of the dinar will go down are, to put it nicely, ignorant as to how the process works. As long as the CBI is in charge the value will not be allowed to fall, period.
Therefore, I am still cautiously optimistic that the float will commence before the end of the year or early in 2016.
Delete the zeros of encouraging the flow of funds towards the inside, 10 NOV
Lots of talk about all things financial today I think that is pretty positive
10/11/2015 0:00
BAGHDAD – Imad Emirate
confirmed an academic economist and an expert on the process of deleting the zeros are not economic impacts him in the cash value of the currency but is a procedure for re-grading and changed.
Said Dr. Abdul-Hussein Jalil Ghalibi from the Faculty of Management and Economics at the University of Kufa, that the spillover which can feel about in the long run it will encourage the investors’ capital flow towards the inside of the expectation of low inflation, returned this thing that depends on the government’s ability in establishing the ultimate effect of the deletion of zeros.
He noted that changing the currency and delete the zeros of which is just a re-calibration or calibrator does not mean never lifted value The addition of zeros is not a reduction of the value of the currency, and that changing the currency does not exist has a real economic impact because the change will not increase the gross domestic product, which is the standard which is used to measure the production of goods and services in the country.
He said Ghalibi: The change of the currency does not affect productivity because factors governed by major resources, technology and institutions are not affected by the currency change, explaining that this change does not affect the purchasing power of money because the strength of the currency comes from increased demand in exchange for the money supply. As long as the purchasing power, the demand for the currency does not change does not change, as well as the money supply does not change.
He Ghalibi that the deletion of zeros does not entitle monetary institutions and the Central Bank as the authority responsible for the release to print more money and pumped into the economy, but he restricted including existing cash in the replacement process. He went on saying: either the external sector, the position will not also be affected, because the price of exports will continue to be the same without changing the payments spent on imports are not affected because foreign exchange is disbursement of foreign exchange for the local currency, which remains unchanged because the purchasing power of the currency does not change.
It was concluded d. Ghalibi that the direct economic impact on the micro and macro economy would be zero, as the demand and supply of goods and services does not change, as well as the investment of net government spending and balance of payments and consumption will not infect any change.
He either money markets are no other economic effect can be felt on the variables. The prices of assets remains selected in the first and secondary markets but it goes down to reflect the new structure after deletion of zeros.
He concluded d. Ghalibi to the nominal value of the money used to acquire assets will be adjusted in the light of this, and that the ultimate effect would be zero making and trading and commercial value, indicators and other market market capitalization subject to the same mechanism by deleting the same zeros.
He reiterated that the effect is direct and which can palpation over the long term will encourage the flow of capital towards the inside and that foreign investors will put more confidence in the investment climate, which will improve with time in the country. The rush to put their money in the local financial markets awaiting returns largest departing from the basic assumption centered on low inflation and improved macroeconomic policies, and this also depends on the possibilities of the government in establishing the ultimate effect in the long run
LINK.
BGG & FIREFLY TIDBITS, 10 NOV
BGG Article quote: “the Council of Ministers may ask the Central Bank “soon” to leave the currency auction and resorting to “float the dollar”; because according to sources provides state what it called “significant returns Dinareh”, to feed the state treasury, the dollar exchange rate…”
While I am not sure it’s going to be some measure of a “float” (though it may well be what they finally resort to)… what is VERY INTERESTING is the timing. …
it fully appears they are headed towards some currency adjustment with the intent of bridging this budget gap… It sounds like to me – (the “float” term could mean several things)… they are intent on something happening soon. …
my opinion (and that is all it is…) – if such an event occurs – it will likely move up very quickly (relatively speaking, of course)…
IMHO – it won’t take long to reach a realistic value (and that is what would help their budget).
************
Firefly: IMO it will RI to its former rate plus 20% for inflation according to documents then it will remain a managed float of 2% up or down. This is just my opinion basing it on documents.
Remember…NOBODY knows what it will actually come out at. The WB and IMF put something into International banking law a few years back so unless it has changed I’m sticking with it.
1:1 would not help them…IMO. They need money and they need it now.
They only have one chance to get this right. Any miscalculations could cause disaster… AND…Their debt is much higher than a 1:1 could fulfill.
Q: [do you think a chance this year?]
Firefly: I don’t do dates but would be very surprised if it did…get out of 2015 that is. I know one thing for fact…They wouldn’t be doing all this talking and planning unless they intended to do something and SOON. I’m expecting something soon. I believe they are very close.